Confirmation Bias

One of the most important things that impacts us in personal, professional, and financial life is an effect called confirmation bias. Put more simply, this is a tendency for people to only seek out information that confirms what they already think. In many cases, people will examine the same information and come to wildly different conclusions because of their internal biases. Naturally, this makes objective thought and analysis extremely difficult to perform since we are not always the best judge of ourselves.

This effect becomes especially dangerous when it enters the financial arena. When evaluating investment strategies, many people (such as Robert Merton and Myron Scholes of Long-Term Capital Management) fail to examine possibilities that lay outside of their theory. Many hedge funds and derivatives traders create highly complex formula’s based on many assumptions that are usually true, but not always true. These financial models typically use large amounts of leverage, and are prone to tremendous losses if market movements do not match the model assumptions. Another iteration of this self-delusion is the tremendous run-up in housing prices that was based on the assumption home prices would never go down. There was ample evidence to indicate that housing prices could not increase forever, but it was completely ignored in favor of self-delusion by the government agencies, financial institutions, and borrowers who perpetuated the financial crisis.

The impact of confirmation bias also enters the political sphere on a regular basis. There are Nobel laureate economists in favor of higher taxes who claim to have evidence in support of their position and Nobel laureate economists in favor of lower taxes who also have evidence in support of their claim. When the government funds research studies, it is not surprising that the results of the study almost always come back confirming the original theory or hypothesis. Other ways that this phenomenon works its way into the political landscape is through metrics that are impossible to prove or disprove. One of the most famous is an ambiguous employment metric of “jobs created or saves”. It is impossible to objectively define a “saved” job, so the intellectual delusion is perpetuated.

The confirmation bias effect has even found its way into the scientific domain, as demonstrated most prominently in the climate science movement. What used to be called “global warming” has now been changed “climate change”. This makes every observation of temperature a “confirmation” of the hypothesis since the climate by its very nature is always changing. It should not come as any sort of surprise that the so-called “consensus” concerning climate change was completely fictional. It only resulted from suppressing voices of dissent and stifling debate so that the self-delusion of confirmation bias could continue without restraint. If the science was so strong, then it should be able to withstand a rigorous debate. If the proponents of the theory are not willing to debate, then it stands to reason that the science is not very strong.

In the end, it is and always will be extremely difficult to be objective. As astute individuals, we must learn to recognize the impacts of confirmation bias in ourselves and in the world around us. Since most of us do not possess the ability to change the world, we must squarely focus on the things that we do have the power to change… namely ourselves. When making an important decision, it is imperative to ‘step back’ and determine whether there is something we haven’t thought of that could squash our plans. By actively avoiding the bias of confirmation, it will help us to make more informed decisions and live a more fulfilled life.

Jobs Report Sucker Punches Recovery!

In this column a few weeks ago I likened the economy and markets to being in the eye of a hurricane.

There had been some destruction in global stock markets created by the debt crisis in Europe, but the storm quieted down after the surprise EU/IMF announcement of a $1 trillion debt rescue plan. There was hope the danger had passed. But I suggested that, as in the eye of a hurricane, the other side of the storm was yet to arrive, and that sometimes it arrives with more fury than the first side.

It does seem we are now experiencing the back side of the financial storm and that it may indeed result in more serious damage.

The rescue package brought hope that the European debt crisis could be confined to Greece, that the European economic recovery would continue, that European banks would avoid serious fallout from the debt crisis.

The return of a positive outlook was in no small way related to confidence that the economic recovery in the U.S. would continue and become more robust, and that China’s strong economy would also continue to support the global recovery.

The Chinese stock market did not demonstrate the same confidence. It topped out last July and has been in a bear market since, having declined 27%. And in recent weeks it became clear what the Chinese stock market saw coming. The Chinese government has begun taking dramatic steps to take some air out of the Chinese real estate bubble, and stock markets are well aware of what happens to economies when real estate bubbles burst.

Meanwhile, the Greek debt crisis was contagious and spread to Portugal and Spain, with concerns rising about Ireland and Italy.

However, there was still confidence that the U.S. economy would continue to improve, even though some important parts of last year’s stimulus efforts, particularly for the housing industry, had expired at the end of April.

But then the latest economic reports began coming in.

In recent days it was reported that Pending Home Sales rose 6% in April, but that it was likely only due to a rush by home-buyers to get purchase contracts signed before the April 31 expiration of the home-buyer rebate program.

And sure enough, a few days later the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that while overall mortgage applications had increased 0.9% in the last week of May, the increase had been due to existing home-owners applying to refinance their mortgages to take advantage of low mortgage rates. Mortgage rates from those looking to buy a home, so-called ‘purchase applications’, had declined for the fourth straight week since the home-buyer bonus plan expired at the end of April, and are 40% below their level at the end of April. That cannot bode well for the next home sales reports.

Meanwhile, MasterCard’s SpendingPulse reported that retail sales in May were 3.7% below May of last year, the second month of declines after sales improved in the first quarter.

Consumers and the stock market really needed a strong employment report to offset those negative reports, if confidence that the economy continues to improve was to be kept alive.

Unfortunately, the jobs report Friday morning was dismal. The Labor Department reported that only 431,000 new jobs were created in May versus the consensus forecast of 515,000. And most of the new jobs, 411,000, were temporary census-taker jobs. Minus those, there were only 20,000 new jobs created. An awful report.

The unemployment rate did decline to 9.7% from the previous 9.9%. But even that was questionable as a positive, since it was primarily due to 322,000 unemployed dropping out of the unemployment picture because they gave up looking for a job.

Adding to the concerns, ill-winds continued to blow in from Europe with the statement of an official in Hungary that his country now faces a debt crisis similar to that of Greece.

The back side of hurricanes do pass, and the continuation of the financial hurricane will also pass. But the stock market must now worry about the damage that it leaves behind, not so much whether it has raised the odds of the economy sliding back into a double-dip recession, but the damage it has done to forecasts of a V-shaped recovery and the robust improvements in corporate earnings that have been factored into stock prices.

Any Credit ranking Crisis these days In reality Best news

Mainly because North American politicians together with the rest of the society ‘leader’ affordable regarding all four limbs together with barks the fact that substantial governing administration is certainly some of our savior [blessed be the prophet Obama]; could possibly consciously that will tell you that the so-called ‘credit crunch’ is generally related to unsecured debt, credit ranking, control about life-and more than some of our collective means. During the dash off to conserve any joining, the provider popular, nationalized champions, abundant Structure Path broking service, and are generally powering any mercy for substantial governing administration ‘help’, we must attention any safety measures for Churchill what person at one time says, “We has to be attentive planning to form a network the place not a soul matters meant for a single thing except for a good politician or simply an official, a good modern culture the place undertaking acquires hardly any compensation together with thrift hardly any privileges “. Truly. A good modern culture the place there isn’t associated risk, there isn’t meaning hazard together with in due course hardly any unique job is certainly an individual possibly not price residing.

 

Churchill’s was a laissez faire orthodox liberal a man who rightly believed that capitalism might share wealth unequally, but that socialism would share miseries equitably. Life is inherently unfair. There isn’t justness from a man’s simple earthly daily life, except for leading to laws, business opportunities together with outlook for compensation meant for really hard, shrewd or simply grateful that will quite possibly try out. You cannot mingle possibility for daily life, or simply an unjust individuality.

 

 

If ever higher than both said not develop sufficient administrative instance the EU-topia, or just BushBama anytime Keynesianism development will not come to feel substantially. TGovernment does not produce anything, it can only take. When BushBama announces that $5 Trillion of new debt and printed money will be used to ‘jump start’ the economy, they are lying. The $ 5 Trillion of unsecured debt in order to get paid back by the task just great and also deprivation to regulate the administration of the sales revenue. If you want to trigger any market, you’ll probably do this in particular: April contains decreased but not completely free; guarantee business loan provider but does not blend any savings market; slash duties; stick to even more markets; cut rules together with the existing well come together with the obvious; together with would make it criminal to your provider is about to pay for any regulator. You will not save the provider for correlation; nationalized favored champion or just a loan provider.

You simply will not save you the provider for correlation; preferred nationalized champions or simply loan provider.

 

Any elixir within the disaster clearly there was a guarantee for construction together with construction pay for socialization around 70 yrs. unsecured debt together with credit ranking generated due to lousy credit ranking. On top of this loony program socialization for construction you’ll find credit card together with credit lines together with other different types of personal debt. Credit card started in 1950 by just Loan provider for American. Credit lines taken related to 20 years subsequently. This shop for these days, pay off subsequently together with necessary the windshield wonder meant for resulting in center elegance needs. Assist the fact that in time you unsecured debt that will 120% for gross annual net income, consequently any short term diminished money lead to default together with insolvency.

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